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"The attack from Russia can happen in..."/ NATO raises the alarm: Europe prepares for the front line
2024-07-24 23:18:54 / BOTA
The war in Ukraine and the US presidential election dominated the NATO summit in Washington this month.
But away from the public stage, the alliance's military planners have focused on estimating the huge cost of Europe's defense.
NATO leaders agreed on plans last year for the biggest overhaul in three decades of its defense capabilities amid growing fears of Russian aggression.
Behind the scenes, officials have since been reviewing the minimum defense requirements to achieve those plans, which were sent to national governments in recent weeks.
The minimum requirements detail shortfalls in NATO's armies in key areas, providing a rough indication of how many billions of euros it could cost to fix, the military planner said.
NATO aims to turn these requirements into binding targets for individual governments to ensure Europe's defense by autumn 2025.
Reuters spoke to 12 military and civilian officials in Europe about the classified plans, who outlined six areas the 32-nation alliance has identified as the most pressing to address.
These include shortfalls in air defenses and long-range missiles, troop numbers, ammunition and a lack of secure digital communications on the battlefield, conversations with NATO officials showed.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to more freely discuss security issues, while NATO has not yet publicly provided an estimate of the overall costs.
The findings show NATO is facing a delay in achieving its goals at a time when its unity could be tested by budget constraints among top European members and differences over how tough its stance on Russia should be.
More importantly, this year's US presidential election has raised the specter that NATO's top power could be led by a man critical of the alliance - former President Donald Trump - who has accused European partners of benefiting from the military support of USA.
At the July 9-11 Washington summit, several European policymakers publicly acknowledged that, regardless of who wins the November elections, the continent will have to increase its military spending.
In response to questions from Reuters, a NATO official said alliance leaders had agreed in Washington that in many cases spending beyond 2% of GDP would be needed to correct the shortfalls. He noted that 23 members now meet or exceed the minimum 2% requirement.
"Regardless of the outcome of the US election, European allies will need to continue to increase their defense capabilities, force readiness and ammunition stocks," the NATO official said.
NATO is at its highest level of alert since the Cold War, with its most pessimistic officials, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, warning that an attack by Russia on its borders could happen within five years.
While the Russian economy is already on a war footing, European governments may face resistance if they ask for more money for defense spending from taxpayers reeling from a cost-of-living squeeze to prepare for a war that looms. distant for many, analysts say.
"We can expect to see a political backlash materialize, especially if politicians try to explain cuts elsewhere with increased defense budgets," Eurointelligence, an EU-focused news and analysis service, said on July 12.
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