FLASH NEWS
How the betting company predicted the victory of Trump / FBI checks on the founder of the company
2024-11-14 17:16:40 / BOTA
It was a landslide victory that surprised even some of Donald Trump's most ardent supporters: a clean sweep of the battleground states. Certainly few pollsters predicted it.
However, a new type of predictors was one step ahead, and that was in the betting market.
Shayne Coplan, the 26-year-old founder of Polymarket, repeatedly predicted a Trump victory. But now she is in the spotlight.
Coplan was the target of an FBI raid on Wednesday, and her phone and other electronic devices were seized during the operation.
The raid is believed to be related to a US Department of Justice investigation into whether Polymarket accepted bets from users based in the United States. Currently, the platform is not available to US customers, although some merchants have reportedly found ways to use it using VPNs.
A Polymarket spokesperson characterized it as "political payback" by the Biden administration, a sentiment later echoed by Coplan on X, formerly Twitter.
The President-elect's success ushered in a new era of political speculation and has once again cast doubt on the credibility of America's voting class.
Polls across the board called the race a coin toss, predicting split battlegrounds and several hundred thousand votes determining the winner of the popular vote. That was before Trump won key states and received 3 million more votes than Kamala Harris.
In the weeks leading up to the election, FiveThirtyEight's polling average consistently showed Harris slightly ahead of her Republican rival and indicated that America would see one of its closest races in recent history. The site's electoral college forecast also favored Harris, though only slightly.
At Polymarket, the former president began to appear before Harris in early October. As of Nov. 4, the day before election night, the odds were about 56/43 in Trump's favor.
While Harris narrowly edged Trump in August and September, Polymarket favored the Republican candidate for most of the race. His chances of success never fell below 50 percent – or 50 cents in Polymarket terms.
"This is a turning point in news and politics," Coplan told CNBC on Thursday after the election.
Pointing out the credibility Polymarket had achieved, CNBC Squawk Box co-host Joe Kernen told Coplan that he paid more attention to his platform than the polls being scrutinized by the media on election night.
"At Polymarket it looked like a done deal," Coplan replied, adding "and if you were just watching TV, you'd think it's head-to-head."
Si funksionon Polymarket?
Polymarket është një platformë e decentralizuar e “tregut të parashikimit”, e cila u lejon përdoruesve të saj të venë baste mbi rezultatet e zgjedhjeve dhe ngjarjeve të tjera botërore.
Përdoruesit e saj blejnë dhe shesin aksione në rezultate, çmimet dhe pagesat e të cilave variojnë nga 1 cent në një dollar, dhe platforma kërkon që përdoruesit e saj të lidhen me platformën duke përdorur një portofol kripto dhe të paguajnë duke përdorur monedhën e qëndrueshme USDC, një kriptomonedhë e lidhur ndaj vlerës reale të dollarit amerikan.
Ndryshe nga bastet sportive, Polymarket operon me një model tregtimi blockchain, ku individët blejnë baste nga njëri-tjetri dhe jo nga një sistem i centralizuar.
Kush i vendos bastet?
Përdoruesit në SHBA u ndaluan teknikisht të vinin baste në platformë, pasi Komisioni i Tregtisë së të Ardhmeve të Mallrave ndaloi operacionet e tij në 2022. Sidoqoftë, shumë në komunitetet e kriptove në internet treguan zgjidhje të lehta, siç është përdorimi i një rrjeti privat virtual (VPN), për të vënë baste.
Në intervistën e tij të fundit në CNBC, Coplan tha se faqja ishte e mbushur me “para të zgjuara” dhe individë që i kishin kushtuar vëmendje serioze edhe zhvillimeve të vogla në gjurmët e fushatës. Ndërsa pranoi se shumë baste u vendosën nga investitorë amatorë, ai tha se kjo “shton likuiditetin e tregut”, duke siguruar që bastet e vetme dhe të mëdha të mos shtrembërojnë shumë gjasat. Ndërsa njohuritë bazë të kriptove janë të nevojshme për të përdorur platformën, “tregtimi nuk kufizohet vetëm tek entuziastët e kriptove”, tha një individ që punon me Polymarket.
Si e parashikoi Polymarket fitoren e Trump?
“Tregjet e parashikimit janë shpesh më të sakta se ekspertët sepse ato kombinojnë lajmet, sondazhet dhe opinionet e ekspertëve në një vlerë të vetme që përfaqëson pikëpamjen e tregut për shanset e një ngjarjeje”, thuhet në faqen e internetit të Polymarket. Sipas vetë Coplan, “një grup i ndryshëm pjesëmarrësish në treg është më i saktë se çdo ekspert i caktuar” dhe disa elementë të modelit Polymarket japin disa tregues se pse ai mund të parashikojë më mirë një rezultat zgjedhjesh. Polymarket bazohet te rezultati, shanset e përcaktuara nga masa e basteve mbi atë që njerëzit besojnë se do të ndodhë, në vend të asaj që ata shpresojnë se mund të ndodhë.
“Tregjet e parashikimit nuk janë si sondazhet: tregjet e parashikimit demonstrojnë probabilitetin e një ngjarjeje, jo një veprim specifik që një individ do të ndërmarrë,” tha një burim i Polymarket. Kjo mund ta bëjë Polymarket imun ndaj disa prej çështjeve për të cilat anketuesit thanë se kishin çuar në nënvlerësimin e Trumpit në zgjedhje, të tilla si ekzistenca e “votuesve të turpshëm të Trump”, të cilët ose nuk do të dilnin në sondazhe ose hezitonin t’i tregonin një anketuesi se kanë mbështetur ish-presidentin.
A decentralized betting platform like Polymarket could also be exempt from the stigma that weighs on conventional pollsters, who are themselves considered by some along with the traditional media to be representative of the establishment forces that Trump positioned himself against. "One of the main issues is that Trump's base is harder to reach through traditional polling methods," said Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center. According to him, "Trump supporters tend to have lower levels of trust in institutions, including those that conduct polls, which can bias the results."
Polymarket users also have a financial stake in betting on the right outcome, motivating them to place the "smartest bet" regardless of whether that was the outcome they were hoping for or voting for. In early October, when Polymarket published that Trump was leading Harris 51% to 48%, Elon Musk declared that the prediction markets were "more accurate than the polls, as the actual money is on the line."
The Kalshi prediction market gave Trump the best odds for a nearly uninterrupted victory between October 9 and Election Day.
Robinhood debuted a presidential betting market in late October, with Trump later at 55 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 46 percent on Nov. 4.
However, bets on these platforms were not exclusively on Trump throughout the election, nor were they uniform in their predictions.
Kalshi had Harris in the lead for a few hours on November 3, Polymarket gave her better odds for most of September, and Predict, the New Zealand-based prediction market, had Trump leading by just 1 point on the 4 november
At certain points in the race, each of these markets also provided different odds for the same outcomes, which, as economist James Broughel wrote in Forbes "must be impossible in efficient markets."
Was Polymarket right about Donald Trump?
While his victory was less than guaranteed by pollsters, the scale of his victory was a surprise to almost everyone, including Polymarket. As of November 6, Polymarket gave Trump virtually no chance of winning the popular vote, and his chances of securing all 7 swing states stood at 16 percent, which he went on to do. On Aug. 5, Josh Shapiro was the heavy favorite to become Kamala Harris's running mate, the Pennsylvania governor's shares traded at 68 cents on the platform. Just one day later, Harris chose Tim Walz.
Unpredictability, proof of the independence of justice
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