Trump or Harris, difficult times await Europe.

2024-11-05 21:23:31 / IDE SYLVIE KAUFFMANN, EDITORIALISTE E LE MONDE

Trump or Harris, difficult times await Europe.
Donald Trump is an obvious danger to Europe, but even a Kamala Harris victory is not a miracle.

Thierry Breton (former European commissioner), finds that Kamala Harris has not mentioned Europe even once during her campaign, while Donald Trump mentions it, but never positively.

The American elections can determine 3 major issues for Europe. Defense, democracy and economy. In fact, whichever candidate wins, the American orientation towards Asia, which has actually started since Obama's presidency, puts Europe in the background.
We have focused on Trump because the danger is more obvious. But even a Harris win doesn't give me much enthusiasm. America has changed and the situation will be different for Europe, but Europe does not seem to be prepared for these changes.

It is true that if Harris wins, NATO is not threatened. The American presence in Europe is not threatened. But Harris is a continuation of Biden, and Biden's policies have actually been a continuation of Trump's policies. So if Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese products, Biden not only kept them, but strengthened some of them. Such as 100% customs duty on Chinese electric cars. The only change is in rhetoric. If Trump said "America first", Biden says "bye American". In this sense, American policy has changed. The post-Cold War liberal globalist era seems to be ending. In this spirit, it seems that Kamala Harris will also walk if she wins.

Trump hates the European Union. During his first term he tried to divide the Europeans. He prefers to have bilateral relations with the heads of European governments and not with the EU as a bloc. Trump has often expressed his dissatisfaction with the EU's coercive policies and fines against American giants, such as Google, Facebook, etc.

A Trump victory would embolden autocrats within the EU. Viktor Orban has become one of Trump's interlocutors. If in the first term Trump did not consider him much and never welcomed him in the White House, this seems to have changed in the meantime. Orban has gone to meet Trump in the US and has frequent contact with him.

So in both scenarios, Europe must prepare for a new world, where the US will not prioritize the old continent. The time when Europe relied on America is coming to an end.

 

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