
Poles head to the polls on Sunday to decide the future of Tusk's government

Donald Tusk's government is losing support as President Duda blocks its projects. A new head of state could break the deadlock or consolidate the stalemate. The final stage before Sunday's elections.
On May 18, Polish voters will not only decide whether the country's next president will be left-wing liberal Rafal Trzaskowski or conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki. The stakes are much higher.
The election result will also determine whether Donald Tusk's pro-European center-left government can overcome the gridlock being managed by the presidential palace and which has paralysed the government's work since he took office a year and a half ago.
Because, although the Polish head of state does not have as much power as the French or American president, he has much more than the German federal president, whose functions are mainly representative and ceremonial.
With his veto power, he can block government bills. In addition, the Polish president, directly elected by the people, oversees the armed forces, has a role in foreign policy and can submit his own bills.
Disappointed hopes for reforms
When Tusk's coalition ousted Jaroslaw Kaczynski's national-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) in October 2023, after eight years in power, there were high hopes for rapid democratic change.
During the election campaign, liberal-conservative forces had promised to restore the rule of law, liberalize abortion laws, and provide greater rights for gays and lesbians.
They also wanted to address public media reform and hold politicians accused of corruption and abuse of power accountable.
However, it soon became clear that most reform efforts would fail due to the president's resistance.
Andrzej Duda either exercises his veto power or refers laws to the Constitutional Court, which is now composed only of PiS supporters.
Therefore, after a year and a half, the domestic political history of the Tusk government is very modest. Disappointment and dissatisfaction are spreading throughout the country, even among regular voters of the democratic coalition parties.
For Tusk, it is a crucial issue
"The presidential palace or death," wrote Jacek Gądek, a columnist for the weekly magazine Newsweek, after the start of the election campaign last fall. "Tusk knows that everything depends on the outcome of this battle."
Therefore, the prime minister sent his party colleague, the left-liberal Rafal Trzaskowski, into the race as a candidate with a chance of victory.
Kryetari i bashkisë së Varshavës ishte përballur tashmë me Dudën pesë vjet më parë dhe humbi me një diferencë të ngushtë.
Në raundin e dytë, kandidati konservator e mundi atë me një diferencë të ngushtë, me 48.97% kundrejt 51.03%.
Pavarësisht moshës së tij relativisht të re sipas standardeve polake, 53-vjeçari ka një karrierë të gjatë politike.
Ai ka shërbyer si Ministër i Digjitalizimit, deputet i Parlamentit Evropian dhe Sekretar i Shtetit për Politikën Evropiane në Ministrinë e Punëve të Jashtme. Ai ka qeverisur kryeqytetin polak që nga viti 2018.
Kandidati liberal i majtë kryeson sondazhet
Trzaskowski i përket krahut të majtë të partisë së Tuskut, Platforma e Qytetarëve. Ai mbështet një ligj liberal për abortin, që do të lejonte ndërprerjen e shtatzanive deri në javën e 12-të dhe ka hequr kryqet nga zyrat e bashkisë.
Ai është një nga të paktët politikanë polakë që mbështet politikën e BE për klimën.
Me zgjedhjet vetëm pak ditë larg, ai kryeson sondazhet, megjithëse epërsia e tij është ngushtuar në disa pikë përqindjeje në javët e fundit. Rivali i tij kryesor është Karol Nawrocki.
Ky historian 42-vjeçar nga Gdansku drejton Institutin e Kujtimit Kombëtar (IPN), versionin polak të autoritetit të arkivave të Stasit (të RDGJ).
Kreu i PiS, Kaczynski, e paraqiti aktivistin nacionalist të krahut të djathtë, pa përkatësi politike, si një "kandidat të qytetarëve" për President.
Llogaritja e tij: Nawrocki do të fitonte edhe vota të krahut të djathtë jashtë rrethit të PiS, pasi ai nuk konsiderohet aparatçik i PiS si, për shembull, ish-kryeministri Mateusz Morawiecki.
Kandidati i Kaczynskit i zhytur në skandale
Por kjo llogaritje nuk duket se po funksionon: mbështetja për Nawrockin mbetet më e ulët se rezultatet e sondazheve të PiS, edhe sepse shumë anëtarë të partisë nuk e njohin kandidatin. Për më tepër, hetimet gazetareske zbulojnë se Nawrocki ka lidhje me botën e krimit.
Pak para zgjedhjeve, një skandal pasurish të paluajtshme e goditi. Kundërshtarët e tij e akuzuan se kishte marrë me mashtrim një shtëpi komunale.
Në manifestimet zgjedhore, Nawrocki sulmon ashpër emigrantët, Marrëveshjen e Gjelbër të BE dhe Brukselin. Ai kërkon që ndihma për Ukrainën të kufizohet.
Gjermania është gjithashtu armiku i tij. "Unë nuk do të jem një shërbëtor i Gjermanisë", pohon ai. PiS akuzon Tuskun se është "agjent gjerman".
Trumpi dhe Simioni si ndihmës zgjedhorë
Ekipi i fushatës së Nawrockit shfrytëzoi kontaktet e tij të mira me republikanët në Shtetet e Bashkuara për të realizuar një goditje mjeshtërore javën e kaluar: një foto me Presidentin e SHBA-së Donald Trump në Zyrën Ovale. "Do të fitosh", thuhet se i tha Trumpi Nawrockit.
The right-wing populist winner of the first round of Romania's presidential election, George Simion, also traveled to Poland to help his Polish ideological partner. At a rally in Zabrze, Upper Silesia, on Tuesday (14 May 2025), the two politicians announced their intention to build a "Europe of the homeland".
"We will not allow the EU to centralize us and turn Poland and Romania into (EU) administrative districts," Nawrocki declared.
For a time, it seemed that the far-right Konfederacja candidate, Slawomir Mentzen, might pose a threat to Nawrocki.
In some polls conducted in March 2025, Mentzeni came close to Nawrocki and even surpassed him. The 38-year-old tax advisor and businessman has been touring Poland since last fall and boasts of having held more than 340 meetings. He has a significant social media presence: on TikTok, he has 1.6 million followers.
Mentzen's platform consists of a total critique of political reality, focusing on Poland's healthcare and pension systems, as well as Europe's migration policy and the Green Deal.
Mentzeni also advocates the right to own guns and a radical ban on abortion, even in cases of rape. His radical slogans are mainly aimed at young people, who are overrepresented at his demonstrations.
Mentzeni blames Kaczynski's PiS and Tusk's PO for all the country's problems and criticizes the "duopoly" - the dominance of the two. This opinion is shared by many of the 13 candidates running in next Sunday's elections.
In fact, the rivalry between Tusk and Kaczynski has shaped Poland's history over the past 20 years.
Sometimes one party governs (PiS: 2005-2007 and 2015) and other times the other (Citizens' Platform: 2007-2015 and from 2023 onwards). There is not much room for other groups.
The decision will probably be made by the second round.
Unless something unexpected happens, the race will not be decided in the first round, but in the runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki on June 1.
Polls give the left-liberal candidate an advantage, but he cannot be sure of victory. Will voters from the parties forming the governing coalition vote for Trzaskowski or stay home?
And what will Mentzen's voters do? Tusk will have to tremble until the last vote is counted./ DW

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