What are the four scenarios after May 11?

2025-04-27 09:19:34 / POLITIKË NGA ALBAN DACI

The result of the May 11 elections will be such that the Socialist Party will not have the numbers to form the Government and the Democratic Party will not secure the numbers to take power!
The new entities will break the dominance of the two large entities, opening new scenarios that will mark the beginning of the collapse of the political binomial that has dominated the transition for almost 34 years.
1. The first scenario, the SP makes an agreement with some of the new entities that will have mandates to form a sufficient majority to govern. In fact, although this seems impossible, because they are opposition parties, after the elections are over, even when the compromise seems impossible, it can be achieved, because the final goal of the entities is to take or be part of the government.
2. The second scenario, the DP makes an agreement with the new entities as the only possibility to create the numbers necessary to create the government and take power.
If this happens, the DP does not dictate the agreement, but is conditioned by the demands of potential allies only to take power, defeating Rama.
The reality may seem unimaginable to the Democrats, but not to Berisha and other DP leaders who are prepared for such a moment that could be the condition, Berisha not being Prime Minister and some important ministries to take "allies".
In principle, it will be difficult for Berisha, because the potential and necessary allies are precisely his former collaborators whom he has mercilessly attacked with the ultimate goal of eliminating them politically!
It is very likely that Shehaj and Basha will be an important part of the new government if the DP will create with these as the only option the majority necessary to govern.
Berisha has a historical precedent that when it comes to power, he also makes agreements with Meta. If today for his followers it seems impossible for this to happen, after the elections, if this is the last option for Berisha to defeat Rama, he has no problem politically doing it!
3. The other scenario is a Berisha-Rama agreement to co-govern together as the only option to preserve the establishment and to expel new political entities from the system.
Some may swear that there is no chance of it happening. However, to protect the establishment, Berisha and Rama have provided some evidence that if they have to do it, they will do it, and these are the constitutional changes in 2008 or even the agreement on the Electoral Code for these elections. Although this agreement may seem successful in the medium term, it would actually result in major political consequences for these two entities in the first elections that would be held.
4. The optional scenario is that the DP and the SP do not secure the numbers to govern, do not make an alliance with the new entities or with them to secure the majority numbers to govern and the country would go to elections again and again. Then the loss of the two major parties would be catastrophic, almost eliminating them from the political system.
One of these scenarios is certain after the elections. Which one? This depends on the events, numbers and behavior of the new entities! Berisha and Rama will not be the winners of the elections to take power alone and exclusively! This will be the biggest novelty of these elections, marking the end of the political binomial SP-DP that has dominated the Albanian transition.