Lajme flash
Births in the third quarter of 2026 drop to a historic minimum, the downward trend seems irreversible
2026-11-10 11:48:00 / EKONOMI&SOCIALE
Births in Albania fell to 5,787 in the third quarter of 2026, marking a 10.5% drop compared to the same period a year earlier. INSTT data shows that this is the lowest level recorded for this period of the year at least since 2011, when the data was reported.
But even earlier, when data was reported annually, Albania had not recorded such low birth rates for decades.
Other Eurostat data show that Albania is now the country with the highest birth rate decline in Europe over the past three decades. According to Eurostat data, compiled for the period 1997–2025, the number of births in the country has shrunk by 63.5%, from 61.7 thousand to just 22.5 thousand.
No other European country has recorded such a sharp decline during this period. Albania is followed by Lithuania, with a contraction of 53%, Moldova with 51%, and then other Western Balkan countries, such as Kosovo, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The decline is also significant when births are measured in relation to the population. In the mid-1990s, Albania recorded 21.7 births per 1,000 inhabitants, while in 2025 this indicator had dropped to only 9.6, more than halving.
The decline in birth rates is not just about families deciding to have fewer children. The massive emigration of recent decades has removed a significant portion of the young population, reducing the number of women of reproductive age. Even if the average number of children per woman were to stabilize, birth rates could continue to decline, due to the shrinking cohort of families entering the age range to start a family.
At the same time, changes in lifestyle, the postponement of the age of marriage and the birth of the first child, as well as the trend towards smaller families are reinforcing this process.
Economic costs are another obstacle for young families. High housing prices, childcare and education costs, and income and employment insecurity influence the decision to have children. In these conditions, support through the baby bonus, which in Albania is 40 thousand lek for the first child, 80 thousand for the second and 120 thousand for the third, remains a one-time aid that does not address the long-term costs of raising children.
The consequences of the decline in births are becoming increasingly visible in the population structure. According to INSTAT, the population of Albania at the beginning of 2026 decreased to 2.336 million inhabitants, with a decrease of 1.16% compared to the previous year. During 2025 alone, net migration was negative with 28.5 thousand people, while the natural increase was only 1,147 people, increasingly approaching zero.
Meanwhile, the median age of the population reached 45 years in early 2026, reflecting the acceleration of demographic aging.
In the long term, the combination of low birth rates, emigration and ageing creates a vicious circle. Fewer children today mean fewer students in the coming years, fewer young people entering the labour market and a smaller number of contributors to the pension system, as the elderly population grows.
The shrinking labor force risks becoming a structural constraint on the economy, making it difficult for businesses to expand, increasing pressure on public finances, and reducing consumption and economic growth potential.
The risk is made even greater because the process is self-reinforcing. The ever-younger generations being born today will be the parents of the future, making it even more difficult to recover the birth rate, even if economic conditions improve./ monitor
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