The reason why all Japanese people will have the last name Sato by 2531

Japanese people will all have the same surname in 500 years if married couples are not allowed to use separate surnames, according to a new study.
The study, led by Tohoku University economics professor Hiroshi Yoshida, predicted that if Japan continues to insist that couples choose a single surname, every Japanese person will be called Sato by 2531.
As the Guardian reports, the study was conducted as part of a campaign to update a city code that dates back to the late 1800s. Yoshida admits his predictions are based on guesswork, but the idea was to use the numbers to explain the potential impacts of the current system in Japanese society.
“If everyone becomes Sato, they may have to address us by our names or numbers. I don't think it would be a good world to live in," he says.
Sato tops the list of Japanese surnames, accounting for 1.5% of the total population, according to a March 2023 survey, with Suzuki in second place.
According to Yoshida's calculations, the percentage of Japanese with the name Sato increased 1.0083 times from 2022 to 2023. Assuming the rate remains constant and there is no change in the surname law, about half of the Japanese population will have this name in 2446 and the percentage will reach 100% in 2531.
Couples in Japan have to choose which surname they will share when they get married, but in 95% of cases it is the woman who changes her name.
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