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REL: How Kosovo and the Balkans are endangered by the war in the Middle East
2026-03-14 13:40:23 / KOSOVA
Kosovo and other Western Balkan countries are not exempt from the risk of destabilizing the security situation as a result of the war between the United States of America and Iran.
However, the possibility of conventional attacks is estimated to be limited.
Adrian Shtuni, a security expert from the International Counterterrorism Center, says that Iran technically has the ability to launch medium-range missiles towards the region, but "to reach the Balkans, those missiles would have to pass over NATO countries, such as Turkey or Greece, which have air defense capabilities."
In Radio Free Europe's 5 Questions podcast, Shtuni mentions other risks, such as the economic factor, hybrid warfare, terrorism, and shifting allies' attention elsewhere.
He mentions Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina as the two countries that could feel the consequences of the war in the Middle East the most.
According to him, the risk that third actors, such as Russia or groups linked to Iran, will exploit the shift of the West's attention from the Balkans to the Middle East to undermine the security situation in Kosovo is worrying.
"Russia may encourage and push armed Serbian paramilitary groups to carry out provocations or sabotage infrastructure, which could lead to armed clashes," says Shtuni, recalling the attack in Banjska or the explosion in the Iber-Lepenc canal.
He does not rule out the possibility that Iran may try to mark the presence of the US military in Kosovo, based on its previous retaliatory actions against US bases in the Middle East.
According to him, there are radicalized individuals who may not be under direct Iranian control, but who, based on the narrative that the US is attacking a Muslim country, may carry out terrorist attacks against the American presence in easily accessible public places.
Shtuni says that the propaganda narrative to portray the Western world against the Islamic religion creates divisions in society, and that Kosovo needs to address this seriously at the educational level.
"Such as mathematics, physics, we should have dedicated subjects in schools to increase social immunity from such ideological agendas."
Speaking about the approach that Kosovo institutions should take towards the current security situation, Shtuni warns of the need for internal political stability.
He questions whether Kosovo can achieve a very close engagement with strategic partners for defense, when the entire focus for months has been on making institutions functional.
"Vigilance must be increased, both in the defense and diplomatic plan. Defense is not just about cartridges, we can talk about creating a factory that produces 'Made in Kosovo' cartridges, but it is only for public consumption, because today you see if someone is using cartridges in the US-Iran war," says Shtuni./ REL
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