"Super-El Niño" towards historical record, scientists warn of an extremely hot year 2027

The El Niño climate phenomenon, which is intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to become the strongest ever recorded, according to researchers from the American Berkeley Earth Foundation.

Experts, who have been monitoring the phenomenon for a long time, predict that the heat wave caused by what has been called a “Super-El Niño”, combined with global warming caused by human-caused climate change, could make 2027 the hottest year on record. According to the researchers, the extreme temperatures could trigger a series of severe meteorological events in many parts of the world, especially in Latin America. These predictions were made public in the latest climate bulletin of the Berkeley Earth Foundation, presented during a conference held on July 23.

"Based on projections from a series of climate models, the peak of this El Niño is expected to exceed the previous record by a truly remarkable margin," said climatologist Zeke Hausfather, one of the study's authors.

According to him, it is not excluded that this phenomenon, combined with global climate change, will increase the average temperature of the planet in 2027 to 1.7°C above the pre-industrial average, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold that world governments have pledged to avoid under the Paris Climate Agreement. Hausfather analyzed the predictions of 14 climate models for this El Niño episode and found that the average estimate for the maximum sea surface temperature in the Pacific is about 0.8°C higher than the previous record set in 2015-2016.

"It's by no means a surefire conclusion, but the probability increases month by month," the climatologist said.

Berkeley Earth's findings also align with estimates from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which predicts an 80% probability that a "very strong" El Niño will develop by the end of the year. According to NOAA, there is also a near certainty that El Niño conditions will persist until at least April 2027, increasing the risk of extreme weather events around the globe.

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