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Japanese report: We could be hit by a 9-magnitude earthquake, nearly 300,000 casualties
2025-03-31 20:07:58 / BOTA
Japan could be hit by a major earthquake that could kill up to 300,000 people, according to a report released by experts and the Japanese government. The “major” quake could hit the densely populated Pacific coast, displace 12.3 million people and cause $1.8 trillion in economic damage.
The report focuses on a worst-case scenario for the devastation that could be caused by a magnitude 9 earthquake in a 900-km-long oceanic fault where tectonic plates intersect known as the Nankai Trough.
Disaster planners based their predictions on an earthquake and accompanying tsunami that would hit most of Japan's coastline west of Tokyo.
The report notes that a megaquake that struck with the same force that devastated Japan's northeastern coast in March 2011 would again cause massive building collapses, tsunamis and fires.
The greatest damage and loss of life and property would occur if the earthquake struck on a winter evening, a time when large numbers of people would either be on public transport and stations, or cooking and warming themselves in fire-prone wooden houses.
The death toll under these circumstances could reach 298,000. The economic damage from the direct destruction of buildings and infrastructure, combined with wider disruption, would amount to $1.8 trillion, equivalent to roughly half of the country's annual GDP, the report notes.
The worst-case death toll is lower than the 330,000 estimate made in the previous version of the report 10 years ago, a decline that is largely attributed to the strengthening of buildings, the development of mobile phone-based warning systems and better overall government preparedness.
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