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Tomorrow's elections in Hungary/ Will the "Trojan horse" within the EU, Viktor Orban, lose?
2026-04-11 21:05:37 / BOTA
The Guardian's take on the Hungarian elections: A telltale race for the global far right.
Hungary has a population of fewer than 10 million and an economy that accounts for a modest 1.1% of the European Union’s GDP. But on Sunday it will hold the most important elections in Europe this year. After 16 years as prime minister, during which he has dismantled the checks and balances usual in a democracy, Viktor Orbán faces the most serious threat to his rule in this period. Polls consistently put the center-right party, led by his main rival, Péter Magyar, ahead by a significant margin.
Mr Orbán was once described by Donald Trump’s former adviser, Steve Bannon, as “Trump before Trump.” At his most difficult political moment, prominent figures on the global far right have turned out in droves to support him. Last month, Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini and Geert Wilders made a “pilgrimage” to Budapest. This week, US Vice President JD Vance made a vociferous visit on the eve of the election, while his boss issued apocalyptic threats to “destroy Iran overnight.” Ironically, given the obvious purpose of his trip, Mr Vance spent much of his time attacking alleged EU interference in the upcoming vote.
Given the unpopularity of the disastrous and illegal US-Israeli war in the Middle East, Mr. Vance’s presence at the campaign may prove a mixed blessing for his host. But the gesture reflects both Mr. Orbán’s status as a forerunner of Maga-style Christian nationalism and the US’s appreciation of Hungary’s role as a Eurosceptic thorn in Brussels’ side. The White House’s national security strategy actively seeks to promote forces dedicated to destabilizing the despised EU; Mr. Orbán is the chief destabilizer. Recent extraordinary revelations have also highlighted the enthusiasm with which Budapest has pursued Kremlin interests in its efforts to undermine European support for Ukraine’s resistance to Vladimir Putin.
The alignment of interests between Mr. Trump’s Washington and Mr. Putin’s Moscow clearly underscores the importance of this election for Brussels. Contrary to Mr. Vance’s baseless claims, EU leaders have been careful to keep their distance, despite a shameful campaign by Mr. Orbán’s Fidesz party, which has demonized Volodymyr Zelenskyy and portrayed Ukraine as a threat to Hungary’s national interests. But a fifth term for Mr. Orbán would force a confrontation with a leader who has used and abused vast sums of EU funds, while mocking its values and acting as Mr. Putin’s “Trojan horse.”
As geopolitical developments take shape, for Hungarian citizens the focus is naturally largely internal. In addition to the ongoing harassment of minority groups, Mr. Orbán’s self-proclaimed “illiberal democracy” has channeled power, influence and wealth to a narrow circle of trusted allies, who exercise a stranglehold on the state, civil society and economy. Mr. Magyar, a former Fidesz member and moderate conservative, has advanced in the polls by campaigning on government-related corruption and the gradual erosion of democratic norms.
A pair of elections will not overturn a system built to entrench Fidesz’s long-standing grip on key institutions. Nor would a new government led by Mr. Magyar necessarily be very liberal. But the end of the long injustices of Mr. Orbán’s rule could serve as an important signal to the global far right, ahead of the difficult midterm elections for Mr. Trump. As Mr. Vance’s last-minute visit to Budapest this week demonstrated, the significance of Sunday’s vote will resonate far beyond Hungary’s borders.
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