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REL Analysis: Scenarios on how Trump can convince Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine!
2025-03-15 14:46:41 / BOTA
Although Ukraine has shown willingness to move forward with a US plan for a ceasefire in the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said "yes", but not completely.
Trump has said he would be "disappointed" if Putin did not accept the deal, although he has not elaborated on what tools he has at his disposal to force him to implement a 30-day ceasefire in the war in Ukraine.
There are three scenarios for how the situation could develop.
Trump has said he could take financial action "that would be very tough on Russia."
This sentence signaled additional sanctions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hackett, head of the National Economic Council, have echoed Trump's statements, but have not offered details on what additional sanctions might look like.
Hackett has recently spoken about the "stick and carrot" strategy.
On March 13, the administration did not approve an extension of sanctions relief on several Russian banks that mediate payments for oil and gas.
This makes it difficult for other countries to buy these materials. Restoring the relief measure could be a carrot, and the United States has mentioned the possibility of lifting some sanctions if Moscow sits down at the negotiating table.
Putin has given signals that he wants bigger carrots, such as the demilitarization of Ukraine and Kiev no longer being supplied with American weapons.
As for the sticks, Hackett said there are still "a bunch of things" that could be done, but he didn't mention anything specific.
One option that has been discussed involves imposing secondary sanctions on third countries that buy Russian oil above the Western-set ceiling of $60 per barrel. A barrel of oil is currently trading at around $70.
The largest consumers are China, India and Turkey.
Another idea is to lower the price ceiling to hit Russian revenues. Something like this would require coordination with Western allies.
Russia has been using a “shadow fleet” of older oil tankers to evade existing sanctions. This could result in tougher sanctions, adding more ships to the sanctions list.
The situation is very much like a cat and mouse game. Ships often pass through many owners. Verification requires considerable effort and resources.
Another scenario envisages imposing a ban on imports of products based on Russian crude oil to third countries.
Measures like these would tighten the screw on the Russian economy.
However, they would not solve the problem and would not have the same rapid effect as the ban that Washington imposed on sending weapons to Ukraine until the latter agreed to a ceasefire agreement.
In other international disputes, Trump's most used weapon is tariffs, which he could also impose on Russia. However, the effect would be limited.
Trump's imposition of tariffs has been viewed with great concern in countries like China, Canada, and the European Union. But these are major trading partners of the US that stand to lose a lot.
Unlike them, Russia sells almost nothing to the US.
“Russian exports to the US fell by more than 80 percent last year, compared to pre-war levels, to about $3 billion, the lowest level since 1992,” said Alexander Kolyandr, in an article recently published in the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Unlike the US, Russian exports to China in 2024 reached that figure within 10 days.
A non-tariff measure suggested by Trump in January was for Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices by increasing production. However, this has not been in line with Saudi interests.
Trump's special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has also mentioned a third scenario for how Washington could punish Russia.
In June of last year, he presented a plan to quickly bring the two sides to the negotiating table.
"We tell the Ukrainians, 'You have to sit at the table,' and if you don't sit down, then US support for you ends," he said.
"And we tell Putin, if you don't sit down, we will give everything to the Ukrainians to kill you on the battlefield."
So far we have only seen the first part of this scenario. It was easy and quick to achieve. It was also a cheap step, because holding military aid is cheaper than distributing it.
There are many question marks about the second part, including the fact that Kellogg himself is not playing a role in the negotiations so far.
Flooding Ukraine with weapons could cost a US president, who has often spoken of how costly the war has been for Americans, dearly. Such a move would also be seen as a reversal of past policy.
Trump has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he is "gambling with World War III."
Washington may find the second part of Kellogg's strategy very dangerous./ REL
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